Reality Check

Thought that this was some good information for the group. Got this from http://www.ncaa.org/research/prob_of_competing/probability_of_competing2.html
Baseball

• Approximately three in 50, or about 6.1 percent, of high school senior boys interscholastic baseball players will go on to play men's baseball at a NCAA member institution.
• Less than ten in 100, or about 9.4 percent, of NCAA senior male baseball players will get drafted by a Major League Baseball (MLB) team.

Approximately one in 200, or approximately 0.45 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic baseball will eventually be drafted by an MLB team.

 

Getting to the top

Remember that pyramid that Braves made in the other thread? In baseball, as one gets near the top of the pyramid the going gets narrow and steep. Just having talent, or having heart, or having a great work ethic are not enough alone. It takes all three along with good health and sometimes a little luck.

I do wonder if the numbers you gave may not represent even tougher odds. If you factor in the players from overseas (latin, asian etc.) then the number of American born high school players that play in pro ball would be even less.

 

Refer to the site. At the bottom it goes into some detail as how the figures are done. It does state it is not exact. If we average in those players that sign fron other countries. Wonder how many finish high school?

 

Incredible odds

No wonder my son didn't continue playing!!! I always thought it was my wife's fault. Thanks for setting me straight. Wonder if I should ask her for forgiveness?

 

Remember: Ask today, she owns you forever!!!!

 

Here are some more figures for you:

You have exactly a 0.00 % chance of playing at the college level if you give up because the odds are stacked against you.

You have exactly a 0.00 % chance of ever being drafted by a professional club if you give up because the odds are indeed slim.

Quote "Stats and numbers are for losers." Bill Parcells

You will never achieve any level above average if you are afraid of failure. And you will never achieve any higher level of play than those around you if you allow numbers to dictate what you dream to achieve.

I look at those numbers and I see opportunity.

 

You are correct. But, if you look at it from this view. If the group that never trys. Decides too. The numbers posted would go down further.

 

or you can look at it from Jim Carrey's view in "Dumb and Dumber"

Carrey: What are the odds of you dating me?

Beautiful girl: I'd say 1 and...........................a million

Carrey: Alriiiiiiiighty then....so you are saying I still have a chance!!!!!!!!!

I'm with Coach on this. The odds may be low, but for the one's that do make it, they never paid attention to the odds.

 

Fear drives everything

I like the odds. I actually thought they where much worse.

Fear drives everything. Even in our day to day lives. I try to tell this to as many people as I can. Look around you and do some analysis and see if you might not come to the same conclusion. Fear of this or fear of that. In the end it is what you do with fear. How much you overcome any kind of fear is proportionate to your success in what ever you do. All endeavors to whatever level just simply take guts.

In baseball as any other endeavor there is fear of failure and FEAR OF SUCCESS. I really think that people do not reach there full capabilities because they are actually fearful of just actually succeeding. But then again that might be natures way of limiting things.. Place a default in there to keep just so many from getting to the top. If to many got to the top then what would we do. Make another top?

So IMHO I would lastly say that overcoming fear in baseball is more than just being confident in the plate. Mother Nature is the real ace you have to face!

 

I remember sitting at a Carolina game behind a couple of young guys who spent the whole game talking about why Brian Roberts only got to play in college because his daddy was the coach at UNC at the time. The way they talked you could tell that they had played with, or against, Brian in high school. They were saying "He's too small. He's really not that fast. He can't hit. He's a crappy fielder... blah blah blah.
I was younger then and not as likely to speak my mind as I am now... I've reached the age of D.G.A.S. (don't give a s___!) I do recall thinking that Brian was playing and these two guys were sitting on their butts in the bleachers. Their days were over and Brian was still working on his goals.
Whether it's critics, odds, or any other obstacle working against you, it's YOU that has the most influence on your success or failure.